私観:それでも自公政権が過半数割れをする7つの理由。

大手の新聞メディアがこぞって自公政権の圧勝の調査報道をするなか、あまりにも勝手な見立てではないかと、お叱りを賜るかもしれないが、昨年の米国大統領選でもヒラリーの勝利一辺倒だったマスメディアが、予想に反してトランプの勝利により、信頼と権威を失墜させたことは記憶に新しい。日本でも、それと同じように有権者の心理がそうかんたんに測れるものではないという状況が起こらないでもないというのはとても排除出来ないだろうと確信している。

1)森友・加計学園問題を闇に葬り去ろうとする意図がみえみえのなかで、総理の身勝手な冒頭解散をした現実は、国民のほとんどが疑惑の目を向けている。

2)まさに最高権力の側につく者が職権を乱用して公私混同の忖度を当然のように行っている。配下の官僚の弱みにつけ込み表に出ないように、網をはり行政への侵害をおこなってしまっていた。

3)憲法改正は時代にあわせての議論は必要だとは思うが、自衛隊の明記をした憲法九条の改正発議をいそぐ理由がわからない。希望の党の憲法改正の考え方は九条に限定することなく幅広く議論を進めていくということらしい。立憲・共産・民社の最初から反対反対では議論は先に進まない。共産党が希望の党は自公政権の補完勢力だというが、そういう見方だけでなく、反安倍政権では同じだという寛容な立ち位置も必要ではないかと思う。立憲と共産では明らかに憲法観に温度差が感じられるのは否めない。

4)アベノミクスが発せられて5年。企業の利益や内部留保額劇的に増えたものの未だに庶民には、お金が回らない。景気の実感がゼロなのだ。格差や不正が蔓延り、国家100年の計もない。目先の一部の企業の利益を追い求める陰で、世界から置いてけぼりを喰う状況打破にどう努めるか、羅針盤が見つかっていない。おなじ保守のライバルである新党のほうに新鮮みを感じる有権者は多いと見る。

5)これだけ、自公政権の圧勝報道をみると、自公に投票する有権者は安堵し、投票にいかないケースも多々あると見ている。自分が投票にいかなくても大丈夫という心理がはたらく。投票率が前回と同じだった場合、自公への投票に行かない人の代わりに、別の党に投票するケースが生じる。このとき、保守同士のつぶしあいで、自民党の議席が大幅に減るということになる。保守中道の無党派層がこれは大変だということで投票に向かうと言う具合だ。

6)北朝鮮問題は国難ではないという認識は有権者にはある。消費税の使い道は解散の理由にはならないことも認識しているはずだ。

7)まだ半数以上の有権者が投票先をきめていない。これから近来まれに見る有権者の厳しい候補者や政党への精査がはじまることになる。政党間で公示までのごたごたがあったので、メディアが勝手に議席数をデータで割り切るのは早計だと感じる人は多いと思う。

 

以上の理由で、今回の選挙は自公政権の過半数割れは必須と見ている。
自公が過半数をとったら予測を外した自責の念にかられるが、
その時私は日本の国民には未来はないと思うだろう。

 

 

 

 

 

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A seat guess of a general election and a flow of a wind before an official announcement are read and untied.

After it’s made public, there are restrictions variously, so at the front.
The expectation acquisition number of seats of each party will be predicted.
There is also a remark to which a specialist and a commentator are incomprehensible.
We, a voter wavers, doesn’t he?
It’s good and bad and which coterie doesn’t say here?
A flow of social conditions and the time, while feeling, it’s a prediction.
Further because poll of the mass media can be also opinion operation.
I’ll see calmly.
By last year’s race for Federal office.
MOYURUPEN which predicted a victory of Mr. cards before half year.
Now, what happens to this prediction? I’ll see………

 

Mr. Abe enforced the beginning dismissal of the Diet on September 25.
It was something which has no loyalty at all.
Because each opposition party had lack of preparations and a sense of bewilderment certainly.
The opening, I arrive, and, it would be dismissal.
Mr. Maehara becomes representation up to that for Susumu party of people.
An escape is knocked down sound from self-official political power, and disappears.
It was the shape as “party of a request” and the joining that a new party was started via Mr. Ozawa’s agency.
The ideology of Mr. Koike and Susumu coterie of people is just different.
It can be said that the person’s choice from which a way of thinking is different is all right.
That old Democratic Party of Japan took the reins of government which aren’t decided?
It’s because it became mixed in thinking way.
From common people’s eye, there would be a lot of people who think uneasiness couldn’t be denied.
However, Mr. Maehara the way of thinking is also near declares dissolution of Susumu party of people on Mr. Koike.
I made you a written promise to a coterie of a request as well as Mr. Koike.
Anyway the spirit which overthrows Abe government was felt and was also transmitted through the degree of seriousness.
Can I say each opposition party and some meaning that Abe government is overthrown and partial volunteer union?
Mr. Edano of a liberal party will be later, and starts “constitutionalism Democratic Party of Japan”.
Mr. Koike seems to raise three cities of declaration with a meeting of restoration and cooperate.
Even if the one which is a problem is whether Koike Governor of Tokyo runs, but report of a television is seen.
A rasp as which further down isn’t seen was here everywhere.
Is there surprise until an official announcement on the 10th?
It’s a question whether coterie’s leader nomination of a request is done to be slack at each district, it’s being taken out.
A problem is order as a result of the election and isn’t it ordinary to decide?
Even if a leader nomination object is flattered by force.
MIt’s a question whether coterie’s leader nomination of a request is done to be slack at each district, it’s being taken out.
A problem is order as a result of the election and isn’t it ordinary to decide?
Even if a leader nomination object is flattered by force.
Mr. Koike will know the fact which becomes a suitable victim of a rival political party.
The running is denied, but I’m the person from whom the consent by which a successor is a Tokyoite goes.
It’s thought that I’d make up my mind and go out to a general election.
Because a negative campaign of media is a basis during an election period.
It would be better not to be confused so much.
The voting rate of each party at a proportional representation constituency is reported as poll.
There is a coterie who supports it every media, so the objective point of view is needed.
A voter is judging as irresponsible dismissal, in particular, Moritomo Kake school problem.
If self-publicity will be the current state political power maintenance, it can be said that the prospect it’ll be without interference is big for the problem.
If a coterie of Koike request got the initiative and took office.
It’s thought that a deliberation carried without exception becomes possible.
To start a new party, it’s easy, for, it isn’t possible.
Because criticism and an objection to Mr. Koike would continue hourly, but the voter isn’t stupid, either.
I wouldn’t worry so.
Good sense as voter’s Japanese is believed personally and.
I have no choice but to follow a referee.
A prejudice seems to call many opposite votes becoming chronic and a dogma for LDP.
It has been put in LDP up to now.
The flow I say to the other party can also predict LDP and proportion in a constituency by the meaning as the punishment.
It doesn’t possibly fall below the independent majority, and also.
It would be better to determine on 100 seat decrease.
The Komeito has an original identity.
It’s the remonstrance role of LDP.
It may be the one which is that it’s all right to be overcome.
I have just called whether the seat is slightly less maintenance of the status quo.
A coterie of a request is an eye of a typhoon of this election.
All together, a presence of Mr. Koike’s running isn’t certain.
The establishment for which I run is 10%. The acquisition number of seats will be 150-200.
It would change with a presence of Mr. Koike’s running.
Constitutionalism Democratic Party of Japan is a group by the liberal councilor who doesn’t want to go to a party of a request no matter what.
I don’t come before I take office. It would be the very determinative number of seats.
When it’ll be like the Communist Party, it seems.
A meeting of restoration is the same stance as Mr. Koike, but there is also a different place.
It’s thought that it’ll be the number of seats as much as Kimiaki and the constitutionalism.
Communist Party and constitutionalism Democratic Party of Japan are a similar stance, but the region of the follower doesn’t seem to go out.
If Aramasa right is done, they can cooperate by the policy matters.

 

 

 

 

未来の正体

「時代の潮流と未来の正体」

いつの世でもその時代での主導的立場(キーマン)の人は必ず存在する。
今現在の時代ではどうだろうか。一体誰がそれに当てはまるだろうか。
ドナルド・トランプ氏は今の時代のキーマンには果たしてマッチするだろうか。
条件をつければ、それは可能とはなるだろう。その条件とは?
Make America Great Againで米国だけが潤うテーマは当てはまらない。
アメリカファーストという利己的なスタイルを押し通そうとすると、
世界から一斉の非難を浴びせらるのは当然のことだ。
なぜなら米国の指導者達は、パックスアメリカ―ナ(軍事的覇権主義)と、
戦後プレトンウッズ体制での世界秩序を築き挙げ、
世界から信任されたものだったからだ。
しかし、キューバ危機においては、
医師(ゲバラ)と弁護士(カストロ)が立ち上がって親米政権を追い出し、
革命を成功させて以来、米国の力は下降していった。
米国は圧倒的な軍事力を持ちながら、「核なき世界を構築する」。
しかしそれは真逆な発想であり現実的にはあり得ない。
オバマ氏の妄言にすぎなかった。
オバマ氏は戦後最低の大統領であり、
トランプ氏は戦後の終末大統領といったほうが
的を得ているように思う。
今現在での世界秩序では、核など廃絶できるわけがない。
常任理事国だけが核の保有を認められ、それ以外は許さない、
いま考えられることは、2017年中に北朝鮮に核保有を認め、
米朝国交樹立、米朝平和友好締結、
そして朝鮮半島の休戦から終戦の調印をし、
北朝鮮にNPTに加入させ、核の保有国が、
正恩氏の核の平和利用に徹する縛りを設定することである。
いま、水面下で年内での実現に向けて交渉をしているはずであり、
メディアで言う、正恩氏みずからの発射はあり得ないことがわかる。
米国に煽られて、時代の流れに逆行する日本では、
イージス・アショアの実戦配備をせざるを得ない、
安倍政権への不信も再燃するだろう。
トランプの真意は北朝鮮・中国・ロシアとのスムーズな関係構築にある。
日本はおそらく今後、蚊帳の外での外交を強いられるだろう。
韓国では文大統領が北との対話協調を強めており、
旧日本軍関係への猛烈な反感は、いまの外交では未来永劫無くなることはない。
プーチン氏はヤルタの秘密条約(北方四島を支配)を、
律儀に守っているだけであり、2024年まで大統領職に就くことにある。
日ロ平和条約は締結する腹はないだろう。
習近平氏は一路一帯構想で元王朝の回帰を狙っているらしいが、
共産党一党独裁政権での政には限界がある。
民主化で生まれ変われば世界をリードする国にはなれる可能性はある。
経済は拡大しても人心が離れては話にならない。
トランプ氏は支持率が下降していると言われているが、
彼としてははじめから大統領になるつもりはなかった。
オバマ・ヒラリーに勝利する。就任式でその目的が全うされたわけだが、
政治に素人な彼は弱みだけが露呈されてはいるけれども、
キッシンジャー氏はそれを上手く外交の戦略に使おうとしている。
つまり、捨て身で北朝鮮と米国を平和条約締結という形で進めさせ、
極東の軍事的不安定を無くすことであるとされる。
米朝は水面下で交渉を進めていることだろう。
トランプ氏は任期を待たずして、ペンス副大統領に禅譲する可能性は高い。
いまのホワイトハウスの状況はどうみても尋常ではない。
日本としては、大本営の回帰と米国隷属志向の安倍氏では無理だが、
次なるリーダーこそが国連常任理事五ヶ国とは間合いをとり、
日本独自の独立国らしい理にかなった主張と、
振る舞いをすることが大事になるはずだ。
今の時代が50年後、100年後、1000年後、
どう描かれているかを想像してみるのは、
平和と戦争や差別や経済格差を見る上で、
貴重なものとなるに違いない。

 

 

“Current in the age and the future character”

 

A person in the lead-like viewpoint in the time (key man) exists certainly in a world in everytime.
How is it in the time current as of now? Who on earth applies to that?
Does Mr. Donald Trump kill, and agree with a key man in the time now?
When making the conditions, that would be possible. With its condition?
A theme by which only USA benefits in Make America Great Again doesn’t apply.
When I try to carry a selfish style as an American first baseman through.
SERARU NO is open to simultaneous criticism from the world, and a natural thing.
Because American leaders, with PAKKUSUAMERIKA-NA (military power principle).
The world order by a pre Ton Wood system is built and mentioned after the war.
It’s because it was trusted in from the world.
But since it’s put in the Cuban Crisis.
A doctor (Guevara) and a lawyer (Castro) stand up and drive a pro-government in the US.
Since I made a revolution succeed, the power of USA was being descended.
USA “builds the world without stones” while having the overwhelming military power.
But truth is reverse idea and that’s impossible realistically.
It was only a lie of Mr. OBAMA.
Mr. OBAMA is a lowest president after the war.
Mr. cards are the one such as postwar end presidents.
I think I get a mark.
It’s impossible to be able to abolish a stone by the world order current as of now.
Only a permanent member of the Security Council can admit nuclear possession, and anything but that isn’t permitted.
The thing considered now admits nuclearization in North Korea by the end of 2017.
U.S.-North Korea establishment of diplomatic relations and U.S.-North Korea peaceful friendship conclusion.
And signing in the end of the war is done from an armistice in Korean Peninsula.
The country in possession which makes NPT join North Korea and is a stone.
It’s to establish tying which devotes itself to nuclear peaceful utilization of Mr. positive kindness.
Negotiations should be done for realization within the year under the surface of the water now.
Mr. positive kindness who says by media finds out that the launch is impossible.
In Japan where I’m fanned into USA and go against a flow in the time
A military disposition of Aegis and ASHOA can’t help be done.
A distrust to Abe political power would also recur.
There is true meaning of cards in smooth related building with North Korea, China and Russia.
Japan would be able to press for diplomacy outside the mosquito net from now on.
A sentence president is strengthening dialogue cooperation with the north in Korea.
The future eternity doesn’t disappear by the diplomacy now for furious antipathy to an old relation of the Japanese military.
The secret treaty by which Mr. Putin is Yalta (The four northern islands are ruled.)
It’s here to be just protecting and get a president job until 2024 honestly.
There would be no concluded abdomens for a peace pact of Japan and Russia.
Mr. shuu Chinahira seems to aim at regression of a former dynasty by the whole plan directly.
Politics by the Communist Party party dictatorship is limited.
When it’s reborn by democratization, there is a possibility that I get away in the country where the world is led.
Even if economy expands, since getting away, the hearts of the people don’t come to talk.
It’s said that an approval rate descends Mr. cards.
There was no intention which becomes a president from the beginning as him.
I defeat OBAMA and Hillary. The purpose is a fulfilled reason by an inauguration.
Only the weak point is exposed by Masaji to him who is an amateur.
Mr. Kissinger tries to use that for a diplomatic strategy well.
In other words, make advance it by the shape that I’m desperate and call North Korea and USA a peace pact conclusion.
You assume that it’s to lose Far Eastern military unstableness.
U.S.-North Korea will be that I’m carrying on negotiations under the surface of the water.
Without Mr. cards’ waiting for tenure of office, a possibility that I abdicate the throne to a penny vice-president is high.
Even if it’s seen, how ordinary isn’t the situation of the White House now?
Japan is impossible under Mr. regression of Imperial Headquarters and American subordination-oriented Abe.
The leader it’ll be next gets the suitable interval with five UN permanent directors.
Japan, with the insistence reasonable appropriate for a personal independent country.
To behave oneself should assume serious proportions.
The time now is 50 years later, 100 years later and 1000 years later.
To imagine how to be drawn?
When a war, discrimination and the financial differential are thought to be peaceful.
I’m certain that it’ll be something valuable.

 

Propaganda in a turning point of history, if, but, why?

Is it only I to think about incomprehensibility of the existence of IS?
An area in the Middle East depends on colonized policy in America and England and Europe and deprivation-ization of resources.
It has been a just sterile area.
The Ottoman Empire, until World War I, per 600 years.
Peace was enjoyed, but it depends on invasion in the Europe Great Powers.
Tyranny, obliged historical process.
That it has been a victim in the Middle East and the cause which bears terrorism would be apparent.
“Arabian Lawrence” is a historical large entertainment movie.
The British lieutenant who acted as a model?
It’ll be sacrifice of a British state ambition while tilting to Arabian independent support.
They have been betrayed while promising Arabian independence.
USA will be a propaganda large country from time of this 19 end of a century.
It’ll be the one which should be in a colonist policy.
The specific thought which is here and the strategy of public relations for a group I consider to grasp the center of the power.
That can be called a main subject of propaganda.
I think America and England involve the back of IS.
When 2020 Summer Olympics was decided in Istanbul, it was holding in the first Islam area.
When I think now if it’ll be so.
I’m certain that the Islamic countries cooperated with Turkey in a body.
There is also a point of view that it’s Japan that that was prevented.
Truth or falsehood of a matter is understood only by a person concerned.
Because it isn’t understood, it’s inevitable to judge by conjecture, inference and guess.
That’s worth in nine cases out of ten.
In history, if, but, why, I think the viewpoint is also important.

The true meaning of “Sontaku”.

Moritomo school is exchange by a ruler, a bureaucrat and a person concerned by Kake school, and terminology as “surmise (surmise)” has frequently come out, the meaning is also incomprehensible as Japanese, oh, it’s done, and, and, when it’s translated into a foreign language, it seems difficult.
Generally
There seems to be a definition called “guess”, but it isn’t also quite satisfactory too much.

But a definition in MOYURUPEN?
1) “I guess so that I may sense partner’s feeling and share a matter.”
2) “I make something around sense the will, and it’s moved by the pressure of the power other persons don’t see.”
3) “Without making an event realize that I don’t come to my body in the condition, a fact makes a partner plant a threatening concept, and I make a fact be accomplished.”
4) “I have to persuade a partner to make them use as this will, I’ll make them conscious of bureaucrat’s judgement befittingly, have it by a power relationship and reprove for vague language in forcing way in a difficult case.”
It’s thought whether it’ll be the definition which says so.
You think it’s better for a word to show the situation of the others who influences a word to a foreigner by a phrase than itself, right?

 

 

共同謀議罪の日本史

応仁の乱、
本能寺の変、
関ヶ原の戦い、
御館の乱、
戦国時代の全ての合戦、
明治維新、
戊辰戦争全般、
寺田屋事件、
壇ノ浦の戦い(源平合戦)、
白村江の戦い、
元寇、
大阪冬の陣、夏の陣、
日清戦争、日露戦争、真珠湾攻撃、
日華事変、広島・長崎原爆投下・日本主要都市無差別攻撃、
東京大空襲、
515事件、226事件、
三島由紀夫事件、赤軍派・中核派関連事件全般、
連続企業爆破事件、
ロッキード事件捏造事件、
2017共謀罪強制採決事件、
官邸主導学園設置忖度乱用事件

 

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